In October 2025, OpenAI committed to buy 1 gigawatt of AMD’s Instinct AI chips. Alongside that commitment, AMD gave OpenAI a warrant to buy up to 160 million AMD shares for a penny each. The shares vest in stages as OpenAI’s purchases grow toward 6 gigawatts and as AMD’s share price climbs toward $600. In February 2026, AMD gave Meta a warrant on the same terms, tied to a commitment to buy its first gigawatt.
AMD began shipping its new MI450 chips to customers in Q3 2026. When AMD reported its Q3 results on November 3, it recorded its first charge for the warrants. The non-cash charge came to $1.1 billion.
By the end of Q3, those warrants were worth about $57 billion, more than 12 times their value when AMD issued them. AMD’s shares have fallen 29% since the end of Q3. The steepest drop came on November 5, when AMD lost 17% in a single day as AI and chip stocks sold off.
Less than 10% of that $57 billion will ever reduce the revenue AMD reports. Every dollar AMD’s share price loses before the end of Q4 changes its Q4 earnings in a direction investors won’t expect.